House Democrats had a great election last year. They picked up 40 seats from Republicans and won the majority in the House of Representatives for the first time in nearly a decade.
The question now is: Was last year indicative of a changed political landscape that, finally, favors Democrats? Or was 2018 a unique blue wave, and will 2020 return things to the equilibrium that has recently favored Republicans?
Right now, both sides say data points to them having a strong election. Democrats' House campaign arm is out-raising Republicans', and a key indicator of which party will control the majority, the generic ballot question, favors Democrats. Democrats also say they see signs of enthusiasm right now that mirror the ones that preceded the 2018 election. They think they can add to their majority. At the very least, it's an uphill battle for Republicans to try to take it back.
But Republicans are intent on taking back seats they think should be rightfully theirs, in districts that Trump won by double digits. It's those seats that make up the bulk of our list of House races most likely to flip parties in 2020. There are at least a dozen more competitive races across the country, and things could change because there are so many unknowns in the current political landscape.
Here are The Fix's first rankings of which seats are most likely to change hands in 2020. No. 1 is the most likely to flip.